Iraq's Planning Ministry Defends Census Methodology Amid KRG's 14.1% Budget Share Demand

Peregraf - Iraq’s Ministry of Planning on Wednesday, February 25, 2026, issued a detailed clarification on its calculation of the Kurdistan Region's population. This comes amid ongoing disputes with the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), which continues to demand its full constitutional budget share based on a 14.1 percent ratio.

The clarification addresses persistent tensions between Baghdad and Erbil over financial entitlements, as the KRG insists its share of the federal budget must reflect the proportion established in Iraq’s latest national census.

According to ministry spokesperson Abdul-Zahra al-Hindawi, the issue was reviewed during a meeting of the Opinion Committee chaired by then-Acting Minister of Planning, Dr. Khaled Battal al-Najm. The session primarily focused on objections raised by the KRG regarding population figures derived from the 2024 census.

The ministry stated it had shared extensive datasets with the KRG, including more than 20 detailed tables covering population distribution across provinces, districts, sub-districts, and villages. Initial raw data indicated the Kurdistan Region’s population was approximately 14.14 percent of Iraq’s total.

However, officials clarified that this figure was subsequently adjusted using an agreed methodology. At the KRG’s prior request, individuals residing in the Kurdistan Region but originally from other Iraqi provinces were excluded from the Region’s population count and reallocated to their places of origin. This exclusion was discussed during a parliamentary session on October 1, 2024, and reiterated in a meeting on October 31, 2024, at the Presidency, attended by the President, Prime Minister, and other officials from both federal and KRG governments.

The ministry also applied what it described as a "migration matrix," based on international statistical standards and cross-referenced with historical records from the 1957 census, as stipulated by Council of Ministers Resolution No. 24853 of 2024. After excluding foreign nationals across all provinces and applying these adjustments, the Kurdistan Region’s population share was recalculated at 12.68 percent.

The KRG has strongly rejected these revised figures. In a cabinet session earlier this month, it accused the Ministry of Planning of manipulating the results and called on the federal government to adhere to the initially announced ratio of about 14.1 percent. KRG officials assert that the detailed tables for the Region were based on raw data (before exclusions), while the 12.68% was presented in only one table. The KRG Ministry of Planning, its statistics board, and its Baghdad representative office received all tables, including the enumeration and numbering phase databases for its provinces.

KRG officials argue that any deviation from the original percentage undermines federal cabinet decisions and risks reducing the Region’s financial and administrative entitlements. They also stress that the census figures do not account for Kurdish-populated areas outside the Region’s current administrative boundaries.

This dispute has significant implications for budget negotiations between Baghdad and Erbil, as population ratios are a key factor in determining the Kurdistan Region’s share of federal revenues.

Iraq conducted its first nationwide census in nearly four decades on November 20–21, 2024, with preliminary results putting the country’s population at more than 46 million. The disagreement over how those figures are interpreted continues to shape one of the most sensitive political and financial issues between the two governments.